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Looking ahead, darkly

After going over Stephen's drunkblog, and reviewing history, I'll make some observations.

First, candiates with passionate supporters tend to do better in caucuses and straw polls, hence Obama's early strong performance. Once we get into more regular primary races, the more ... regular ... shall we say candidates who rely on a "plug & chug" approach often do better. This helps explain how Hillary improved so dramatically as the 2008 election progressed.

Moving forward from this I expect Trump to do fairly well in the early caucuses, but not so strong once we enter more-standard primary races. We might expect to see Cruz or Rubio advance after that. Bernie should also do well early on, for the same reasons. I'm just not sure if he has the staying power during the later primaries. I expect that will depend on how well he feeds off of the near-universal dis-satisfaction with the Establishment leaders on both sides of the aisle. Certainly Hillary has hurt herself with both the email security allegations, along with her association with the crony capitalists.

{whisper, whisper, point!} What? No, sorry, I don't see Jeb going anywhere but down. Very, very quickly. Let me help folks with my stand, which is also true for the Clintons: NO MORE BUSHES. AT ALL. EVER.

We face trillion-dollar deficits, and the irrefutable need to address them. Various interests must come to terms with the fact that our entitlement programs are out of control, as well as the admission what we will certainly not be seeing a "350-ship navy" in the next generation either. National defense is vital, but Pentagon procurement (LCS, anyone?) is in some never-land. Ditto for entitlement programs. We can't keep jacking up benefits and expecting "the rich" to foot the bill. They'll either hide their assets or transfer them overseas. That's already happening while this administration is trying to pass laws to prevent it.

We don't need rock stars, supermen, or messiahs for this. In fact I am specifically reminded we already have one of the latter, and He would not be amused to be supplanted by an elected representative. What we need are dull, boring, capable men & women who make sure things just run effectively. Am I thinking of Cal Coolidge? Perhaps. Think ill of me if you will, but I'll take that over a rock star, overblown used-car salesman, or ideologue, or social scold.

{ed: NUDGE} Oh, sorry. I expect Trump to do well early on, but Cruz or Rubio to gain later. Also expect Bernie to do well at first, but my tea leaves won't say if he has the legs to beat Hillary for the nomination. I don't anyone else getting any traction. And I still miss Giuliani.

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